National Review 8 June 2010
By Daniel Pipes
As typical Islamist-leftist theater to delegitimize Israel, late Mays Turkish-sponsored "Free Gaza flotilla was tediously repetitious. As an illustration that Israelis dont understand the kind of war they now must fight, the outcome was drearily predictable. But as a statement of Turkeys policies and an augury of the Islamist movements future, it bristled with novelty and significance.
Some background: After some 150 years of faltering efforts at modernization, the Ottoman Empire finally collapsed in 1923 and was replaced by the dynamic, Western-oriented Republic of Turkey, founded and dominated by former Ottoman general Kemal Ataturk. Over the next 15 years, until his death in 1938, Ataturk imposed a Westernization program so stringent that at one point he had rugs in mosques replaced by church-like pews. Although Turkey is nearly 100 percent Muslim, he insisted on a purely secular state.
Ataturk never won the entire Turkish population to his vision and, with time, his laic republic increasingly had to accommodate pious Muslim sentiments. Yet Ataturks order persisted into the 1990s, guarded over by the military officer corps, which made it a priority to keep his memory alive and secularism entrenched.
Islamists first acquired parliamentary representation in the early 1970s; their leader, Necmettin Erbakan, served three times as his countrys deputy prime minister. As mainstream Turkish political parties frittered away their legitimacy through a disgraceful mix of egoism and corruption, Erbakan went on to become prime minister for a year, 199697, until the military asserted itself and threw him out.
Some of Erbakans more agile and ambitious lieutenants, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in August 2001 formed a new Islamist political party, the Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP). Just over a year later, it won a resounding 34 percent plurality of votes and, due to the vagaries of Turkish electoral regulations, dominated parliament with 66 percent of the seats.
Erdogan became prime minister and, by dint of good governance, AKP won a very substantial increase in the vote in 2007. With a renewed mandate and an increasingly sidelined military, it aggressively pursued elaborately fake conspiracy theories, fined a political critic $2.5 billion, videotaped the opposition leader in a compromising sexual situation, and now plans to alter the constitution.
Foreign policy, in the hands of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who aspires for Turkey to regain its former leadership of the Middle East, overreached even more blatantly. Ankara not only adopted a more belligerent approach to Cyprus but recklessly inserted itself in such sensitive topics as the Iranian nuclear buildup and the ArabIsraeli conflict. Most surprising of all has been its backing for IHH, a domestic Turkish "charity with documented ties to al-Qaeda.
If Ankaras irresponsible behavior has worrisome implications for the Middle East and Islam, it also has a mitigating aspect. Turks have been at the forefront of developing what I call Islamism 2.0, the popular, legitimate, and non-violent version of what Ayatollah Khomeini and Osama bin Laden tried to achieve forcefully via Islamism 1.0. I have predicted that Erdogans insidious form of Islamism "may threaten civilized life even more than does 1.0s brutality.
But his abandonment of earlier modesty and caution suggests that Islamists cannot help themselves, that the thuggishness inherent to Islamism must eventually emerge, that the 2.0 variant must revert to its 1.0 origins. As Martin Kramer posits, "the further Islamists are from power, the more restrained they are, as well as the reverse. This means it might be the case that Islamism presents a less formidable opponent, for two reasons.
First, Turkey hosts the most sophisticated Islamist movement in the world, one that includes not just the AKP but the Fethullah Gulen mass movement, the Adnan Oktar propaganda machine, and more. AKPs new bellicosity has caused dissension; Gulen, for example, publicly condemned the "Free Gaza farce, which suggests that a debilitating internal battle over tactics could take place.
Second, if once only a small band of analysts recognized Erdogans Islamist outlook, this fact has now become obvious for the whole world to see. Erdogan has gratuitously discarded his carefully crafted image of a pro-Western "Muslim democrat, making it far easier to treat him as the Tehran-Damascus ally that he is.
As Davutoglu wished, Turkey has returned to the center of the Middle East and the umma. But it no longer deserves full NATO membership and its opposition parties deserve support.